He Could... Go... All... The... Way
Big Brother Analysis By Professor Dan
September 7, 2004
As I write this, it is pretty certain that Karen will be gone this week. Then, unless she wins POV, Nicodermus will be next. The current plan is for Drew and Diane to throw the HOH comp and let Cowboy win. He'll nominate Diane and Nic (possibly Drew and Nic, but I think Drew will have CB keep him off the block.) If Nic doesn't win POV, the nominations will stand and Nic will be gone. What if Nicoderm wins the POV? Then she gets to be the sole voter, and she will almost certainly take her revenge on Diane for breaking their alliance and voting to evict Karen. In that case, it'll be Drew, Nic, and Cowboy in the F3. BUT, Nic winning the POV in the first place is a pretty long shot. So for the remainder of this column I'm assuming it'll be Drew, Diane, and Cowboy in the F3. Assuming the usual endurance HOH comp occurs, is there any doubt that Cowboy will be eliminated? So I'm figuring Drew and Diane in the F2.
By the way, I've had an ongoing argument with a gentleman who has maintained that it's IMPOSSIBLE for an OPEN two-person alliance to succeed in BB. He was sure that inevitably, the others would target such an alliance and break it up. I believe he is about to be proven wrong. Drew and Diane had a VERY open alliance (they even slept together!) yet they are poised to make F2. One reason for that is, of course, that the Twins were an even MORE open alliance, and were perceived as more of a threat than Drew and Diane.
Okay, so who will win BB5 if it's Drew vs. Diane? Drew. In fact, I think Drew can win against anybody but Cowboy. Certainly in a Drew vs. Diane F2, Drew gets the Twins' votes. I think that Will, Nicoderm, and Karen will see Diane as having betrayed the "pinky swear" alliance, and they'll go for Drew. Cowboy would most likely vote for Drew. That's six votes out of seven.
I've seen some commentary to the effect that Diane has been playing the game SO WELL, while Drew has been riding on her coattails, and so the jury members will reward her. I'm sorry, but I don't see it. Drew has made tough decisions in this game-- he stepped up and got rid of Holly, then later on, Marvin. He's been everybody's friend and confidante, and even though he's screwed different people, practically nobody dislikes him (except maybe Marvin). IMHO, he's played a BRILLIANT game.
Diane, on the other hand, refused to support the Twins when they needed her, and she will have betrayed the "pinky Swear" alliance when Karen goes this week. Diane is SO screwed now, and who put her in that position? Drew. Look at the Karen vote-- will anybody hold it against Drew when he votes to keep Cowboy? Of course not-- they EXPECT him to vote for Cowboy. HE'S not betraying Nic and Karen by voting for Karen-- DIANE is. I wouldn't be surprised if Drew didn't let Diane win the F3 comp because he knows she'll take him with her anyway. That way, it'll be Diane who crushes Cowboy's dream, not him, so he'll secure Cowboy's vote as well.
That's how Drew has played all season-- it's always been about not pissing people off unnecessarily, not burning bridges, and staying in everyone's good graces. That's why he hated the Marvin eviction-- he was forced into that nomination, he had to possibly alienate Marvin, and Marvin's on the jury. But NOT nominating Marvin would've alienated others in the house, so he did what he had to do. And now he's going to let Diane take all the heat for advancing them to the F3 and maybe even the F2. I think the jury members will see that and vote accordingly. And it won't hurt that they'll also be voting for a person they see as a "good guy", too.
Dan is a college professor who somehow got hooked on Reality TV, especially ones with lots of strategy and twists. You can contact him at Daniel1953@hotmail.com
