If Eliza wins the next IC: Chris goes home. Eliza COULD join Chris to force a tie, but she won't-- why should she?
If Chris wins the next IC: Eliza goes home. Chris COULD join with Eliza to force a tie, but he won't-- again, why should he?
If either Twila or Scout (yeah, right!) wins the next IC: Eliza goes home. Without having Immunity, Chris couldn't afford to join with Eliza and force a tie, and Twila and Scout want Eliza GONE.
So, as I see it, it's do-or-die for Eliza in the next IC. And basically there's no way either Twila or Scout will be voted out. This means that TWILA AND SCOUT HAVE ALREADY MADE F3.
Now, two assumptions after this: first, WHOEVER MAKES F3 with Scout will take her to the F2. She is the perfect foil. NOBODY is going to vote that woman a million dollars. Second, there is NO WAY that Scout can win the final IC.
So here are the options going into the final IC:
Eliza-Twila-Scout: If Twila wins, it'll be Twila-Scout in the F2, and Twila will win Survivor. If Eliza wins, it'll be Eliza-Scout, and Eliza will win.
Chris-Eliza-Scout: if Chris wins, he takes Scout, he wins the game. If Eliza wins, same for her.
Chris-Twila-Scout: if Chris wins, he takes Scout and wins it all. If Twila wins, same thing for her.
IN A NUTSHELL: WHOEVER WINS THE LAST IC WINS SURVIVOR.
Right now, I'd bet on Twila. She doesn't have to care about the next IC. She only needs to win the LAST IC to win it all.
Chris doesn't HAVE to win the next IC to move on (he also moves on if Twila wins it, or -ha!- Scout), but if Eliza wins it, he's gone. So, he's vulnerable, but he has a good chance of making F3. Then, it's his game to win or lose.
Eliza has the worst chance-- she HAS to win the next Immunity to move on, and she has to then win the last one to win the game. That would make three IC's in a row-- not an easy feat.
Dan is a college professor who somehow got hooked on Reality TV, especially ones with lots of strategy and twists. You can contact him at Daniel1953@hotmail.com.
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